Summary: Pharmaceutical markets differ from competitive markets, often producing prices that do not fully reflect societal value. Traditional cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is intended to fill this gap, but it may omit important elements of value that patients, caregivers, and society recognize over time. By comparing real-world market performance with value estimates from CEAs conducted at launch, this study finds evidence that traditional methods can understate the full benefits of therapies. The results highlight the need for modelers and assessors to explore broader value elements – such as long-term price dynamics and patient-centered benefits – when evaluating new treatments.
Authors: Cohen JT, Lin CH, Ghule P, Lin PJ
Acknowledgments: No Patient Left Behind funded this analysis and provided feedback. The authors retained control over the design, write-up, and decision to publish.
Materials:
Paper - How Well Has Cost-Effectiveness Predicted Drug Market Success? Evidence of Omitted Value
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